Markets & Economy
The evidence, summarised
What the research actually supports, stated plainly, and what remains genuinely uncertain.
Topic
evidence
Every Finance Spyder article tagged evidence — 7 pieces across 4 sections.
Asset Allocation
The case for keeping it simple
Complexity adds cost and decisions, and the evidence that it adds returns is weak.
Funds & ETFs
Factor investing, explained honestly
The research is substantial, the implementation is variable, and the periods of underperformance are longer than most people can tolerate.
Behaviour
Overconfidence and the illusion of skill
Most people rate themselves above average, and in investing the consequence is measurable in returns.
Funds & ETFs
Active management: what the evidence says
A majority underperform after costs over long periods, persistence is weak, and the arithmetic explaining this is simple.
Behaviour
Why forecasts do not help
The record of market and economic forecasting is poor, and acting on forecasts is worse than ignoring them.
Behaviour
The behaviour gap
Investors persistently earn less than the funds they hold, and the difference is entirely a matter of timing decisions.