Markets & Economy
Reading the economy without a forecast
Understanding the environment is useful; predicting it is not, and the distinction determines what is worth following.
Markets & Economy
Rates, inflation, valuation and reading an economic release.
Markets & Economy
The evidence, summarised
What the research actually supports, stated plainly, and what remains genuinely uncertain.
Markets & Economy
Housing markets and what drives them
Supply, credit conditions and rates dominate, and the asset behaves differently from anything in a portfolio.
Markets & Economy
Central banks and what they actually do
Their tools, mandates and constraints are specific, and understanding them explains most of what markets react to.
Markets & Economy
Emerging markets: the case and the caveats
They represent a large share of global output and a smaller share of global market capitalisation, and the relationship between growth and returns is weaker than assumed.
Markets & Economy
How currencies move and why
Exchange rates respond to rate differentials, growth and risk appetite, and are among the hardest things to forecast.
Markets & Economy
What actually moves markets
Prices respond to surprises rather than to news, which explains why obvious information produces no reaction.
Markets & Economy
Government debt and what it means for investors
The headlines are alarming, the mechanisms are specific, and the implications for a portfolio are narrower than the coverage suggests.
Markets & Economy
Reading an economic release
The headline number is the least informative part, and revisions frequently change the picture entirely.
Markets & Economy
Recessions and what they mean for investors
Markets and the economy move on different timetables, which is why positioning for a recession usually fails.
Markets & Economy
Interest rates and what they affect
The policy rate transmits through the economy with a lag, and it affects asset prices through several distinct channels.
Markets & Economy
Inflation, and what it does to money
It erodes cash quietly, affects asset classes differently, and the measures used to track it have known limitations.