Markets & Economy
The evidence, summarised
What the research actually supports, stated plainly, and what remains genuinely uncertain.
Anton Brekke
37 articles by Brekke
Markets & Economy
Reading the economy without a forecast
Understanding the environment is useful; predicting it is not, and the distinction determines what is worth following.
Markets & Economy
Housing markets and what drives them
Supply, credit conditions and rates dominate, and the asset behaves differently from anything in a portfolio.
Asset Allocation
Allocating across several accounts
Treating each account separately duplicates effort and misses the tax benefit of holding different assets in different wrappers.
Investing Basics
Starting with a small amount
Small sums are worth investing, the obstacles are mostly cost and access, and both have largely disappeared.
Markets & Economy
Central banks and what they actually do
Their tools, mandates and constraints are specific, and understanding them explains most of what markets react to.
Markets & Economy
Emerging markets: the case and the caveats
They represent a large share of global output and a smaller share of global market capitalisation, and the relationship between growth and returns is weaker than assumed.
Markets & Economy
How currencies move and why
Exchange rates respond to rate differentials, growth and risk appetite, and are among the hardest things to forecast.
Asset Allocation
The case for keeping it simple
Complexity adds cost and decisions, and the evidence that it adds returns is weak.
Investing Basics
Reviewing your portfolio properly
An annual review covers what needs checking, and more frequent attention makes outcomes worse rather than better.
Investing Basics
Investing through a pension
For most people the pension is the largest investment account, and the default fund is rarely examined.
Markets & Economy
What actually moves markets
Prices respond to surprises rather than to news, which explains why obvious information produces no reaction.
Markets & Economy
Government debt and what it means for investors
The headlines are alarming, the mechanisms are specific, and the implications for a portfolio are narrower than the coverage suggests.
Asset Allocation
Drawing an income from a portfolio
The accumulation problem and the decumulation problem are different, and the second is considerably harder.
Asset Allocation
Cash as an asset class
It has a role, a cost and a limit, and both holding too much and too little are common errors.
Investing Basics
Common mistakes new investors make
A short list accounts for most of the damage, and all of them are avoidable by knowing they exist.
Investing Basics
When advice is worth paying for
The value is generally in behaviour, tax and complex decisions rather than in investment selection.
Markets & Economy
Reading an economic release
The headline number is the least informative part, and revisions frequently change the picture entirely.
Asset Allocation
Changing your allocation as you age
Reducing risk approaching a goal has clear logic, and the standard glide paths make assumptions that may not apply to you.
Asset Allocation
Building a simple portfolio
Two or three funds cover what most investors need, and additional complexity generally adds cost rather than value.
Investing Basics
Investing for children
A long horizon makes the arithmetic favourable, and the access rules at adulthood are the decision people fail to consider.
Investing Basics
Choosing a platform
Charging structures suit different portfolio sizes, and the protections available differ in ways worth understanding.
Markets & Economy
Recessions and what they mean for investors
Markets and the economy move on different timetables, which is why positioning for a recession usually fails.
Asset Allocation
Gold, commodities and alternatives
They produce no cash flow, their diversification benefit is inconsistent, and the case for holding them is narrower than the marketing.
Asset Allocation
Property in a portfolio
A home is already a large undiversified holding, and adding more property concentrates rather than diversifies.
Investing Basics
What to do when you inherit money
The decisions are made at the worst possible time, which is an argument for deliberately making none for a period.
Investing Basics
Lump sum or drip feed
The evidence favours investing at once, the psychology favours phasing in, and both positions are defensible.
Markets & Economy
Interest rates and what they affect
The policy rate transmits through the economy with a lag, and it affects asset prices through several distinct channels.
Asset Allocation
Rebalancing: why and how often
It maintains the intended risk level rather than improving returns, and the frequency matters less than doing it at all.
Asset Allocation
How much to hold in your own country
Home bias is universal, has some justifications, and is generally larger than any of them support.
Investing Basics
How much you need to invest
Working backwards from a target produces a contribution rate, and the number is generally higher than people assume.
Investing Basics
Tax wrappers and why they come first
Sheltering returns from tax is a free improvement in net return, and the allowances generally cannot be recovered once a year passes.
Markets & Economy
Inflation, and what it does to money
It erodes cash quietly, affects asset classes differently, and the measures used to track it have known limitations.
Asset Allocation
What bonds do in a portfolio
They are frequently misunderstood as safe, and their behaviour depends on duration, credit quality and the reason for holding them.
Asset Allocation
Asset allocation: the decision that matters most
The split between asset classes explains most of the variation in outcomes, and it is decided by your circumstances rather than by forecasts.
Investing Basics
The order of operations before investing
Several things produce a better return than any portfolio, and doing them first is not a delay but a decision.
Investing Basics
Compounding, and why time matters more than returns
The arithmetic of compounding explains why starting early beats being clever, by a wide margin.